A rerun of 2008 for gas guzzlers?

[JD6]

I do wonder if we're in for a rerun of what happened to the car market during the oil price spike / financial crisis in 2008 where inefficient cars in particular take a major hit. Oil approached $150.

I had a 2004 4.4 X5 at the time which had quite a drink habit - around 19mpg. The best offer I could find for the car from a dealer in 2008 was £12k. Bearing in mind this was a £60k list (£50k discounted price) car with about 35k miles on the clock. I couldn't bring myself to sell at that so hung on for 3 more years until 2011 and sold it for £11k with 55k miles on the clock. An impressively flat depreciation curve after the initial fall...

 

[boba fett]

I've had some cars that have been frankly awful and you can quite literally watch the gauge go down. My current garage queen I don't care, I just put it in, but its not good, about 12mpg maybe, however, even if it did 5 it would still be worth it !

One does stick out though, My old tuned RS6 V10 at 760bhp and 1000nm. It was mapped to run on Shell ultimate which for me was a round trip of 20 miles to go and get and the car would only do about 160, 170 miles per tank. It was in single figures if you enjoyed it!

Crazy car though trying to Hussle a 2.3 tonne car round corners you where going way to fast into!

 

[MashinBenzin]

Yep, it’s definitely occurred to me that this could hasten a value fall for my Discovery. Unfulfilled demand is why it’s so over-valued, and if that demand steps away….

 

[JD6]

Yep, it’s definitely occurred to me that this could hasten a value fall for my Discovery. Unfulfilled demand is why it’s so over-valued, and if that demand steps away….

Ultimately the fall in value didn't cost me much if anything, beyond the opportunity cost of not picking up something out of favour at peak doom and gloom. If you still enjoy your car, keeping it probably makes sense, but be prepared to hang on for a few years until normal service has resumed.

 

[Grogu]

It will still be interesting to see if fuel price beats lack of new car availability and drops prices down much.

I guess it will all depend on length and outcome of the war. I say war, but I mean invasion and indiscriminate attack.

£127 to fill X5 up yesterday, with unleaded @ £1.60 a litre, diesel was £1.70!

 

[JD6]

It will still be interesting to see if fuel price beats lack of new car availability and drops prices down much.

I guess it will all depend on length and outcome of the war. I say war, but I mean invasion and indiscriminate attack.

£127 to fill X5 up yesterday, with unleaded @ £1.60 a litre, diesel was £1.70!

A fair point - there was no shortage of supply in 2008. I imagine a key factor will be whether the West stops buying oil and gas from Russia, which will cause a major hike in fuel prices. It seems like a crazy situation that Europe is currently funding an attack on itself...

 

[boba fett]

It will still be interesting to see if fuel price beats lack of new car availability and drops prices down much.

I guess it will all depend on length and outcome of the war. I say war, but I mean invasion and indiscriminate attack.

£127 to fill X5 up yesterday, with unleaded @ £1.60 a litre, diesel was £1.70!

How much does the X5 do to the gallon mate?

 

[Blacktemplar]

£127 to fill X5 up yesterday, with unleaded @ £1.60 a litre, diesel was £1.70!

Ouch. Still around 1.55 or so here in Glasgow for E10, though that was at the weekend and was supermarket prices.

I'm averaging just under 28mpg since new, but to be fair about 90% of that has been short trips during the pandemic. I reckon a 'normalised' average would probably be around 30-32mpg with a higher proportion of longer trips in the mix. I think having less opportunity to drive means I'm less conscious of consumption when I do. Pressing the loud pedal drops me to low single figures which I now just don't look at. It's only money.....

 

[Tengocity]

As well as the petrol price rises, everyone has to factor in home energy price rises which are unprecedented, and then add in general inflation, interest rate rises, and it’s not hard to see the mother of all recessions coming along. I think we are in for a tough decade, as the war situation is only the start of enormous geopolitical instability.
I would be lying if I didn’t admit that it has crossed my mind that offloading the GT4 in the spring might be sensible.

 

[Blacktemplar]

Have to confess that as someone on the cusp of taking early retirement, I'm starting to reconsider. Markets will tank, inflation will stay high and the standard of living I'd hoped for by converting my DB schemes looks like a distant fantasy now.....

 

[Tengocity]

Have to confess that as someone on the cusp of taking early retirement, I'm starting to reconsider. Markets will tank, inflation will stay high and the standard of living I'd hoped for by converting my DB schemes looks like a distant fantasy now.....

Sorry to hear that, but on the positive side, perhaps helpful that it’s happened now before you’ve committed to any thing?

 

[EvilDrPorkChop]

As well as the petrol price rises, everyone has to factor in home energy price rises which are unprecedented, and then add in general inflation, interest rate rises, and it’s not hard to see the mother of all recessions coming along. I think we are in for a tough decade, as the war situation is only the start of enormous geopolitical instability.
I would be lying if I didn’t admit that it has crossed my mind that offloading the GT4 in the spring might be sensible.

Have to agree, there's going to be a massive recession. I can't see there not being, cost of living has just shot through the roof. How low income families will/are managing I do not know. How my OH would manage on her own worries me. I don't see how they expect the low income to live on their own independently these days.

Plus interest rates have to go up, it was obvious they would. I'm just glad I fixed in when I did for a relatively long period.

 

[isleaiw]

Have to confess that as someone on the cusp of taking early retirement, I'm starting to reconsider. Markets will tank, inflation will stay high and the standard of living I'd hoped for by converting my DB schemes looks like a distant fantasy now.....

I was hoping to (be able to) go in a couple of years but I suspect that in two years my pension pot will just have recovered from the downturn if I am lucky so might need a few more years to improve again to where I want it.

Your DB scheme should be index linked I would have thought so your guaranteed pension from it will rise in line with inflation - which is something most people dont have, where inflation will be eroding their returns in all likelihood....