So where next for car prices...?

[Tengocity]

For the last year the availability of new cars has been constrained, lowering the discounts available, and pushing up the true price of both new cars and used cars even more so. That has been driven by a post lock down bounce, and delayed purchasing from 2020, plus all the money that had been saved through that period, alongside the chip shortage. Now well in to 2022 and that's not massively improved, and now we have further issue with component supply affected by the Ukraine War, and I would also expect prices to rise with the increase in commodities, making the energy required for manufacturing more expensive, plus the raw materials. So lots pushing prices higher across the board.

On the flip side, interest rates are likely to rise, plus disposable income is being squeezed due to said inflation, which one would think will lead to reduced demand for cars. Given the cost of fuel, it may even tip the momentum even more towards Electric cars, and impact ICE cars more so. God knows where the Ukraine war will take us - remain contained in Ukraine, or escalate, will it it be short lived or long and drawn out, will there be lots more secondary effects in the world economy?

On balance, I think the high car prices are with us for the forseeable future. I think demand will ease off a bit, but I expect that it will remain above availability, and that the inflationary affects will drive the price of new cars ever higher. Those days of 20%+ discounts are long gone and I can't see them coming back anytime in the next few years. This will keep used cars bouyant.

Anyway, that's my view, what's yours?

 

[Denso]

100% in agreement with you. Next to no discount at all being offered now and most actually want a trade in, where as before they didn’t want to carry the stock.

Denso

 

[boba fett]

Used cars fall into quite a few brackets though.

My type of used car (specialist rare and older than dealer forecourt car) did take quite a big drop on WBAC pricing. My wife's Range Rover dropped £4k in the last 2 weeks!

I think cars will start to come down as other prices go up. Gas guzzlers will take a hit and are by the looks of things, with fuel prices and the EV revolution.

Stick or twist is the question on my mind!

 

[SkyJawa]

My 335d is SORN. Its done about 300 miles in 2 years. Part of me for ages has thought about selling and just having 1 car, but I always feel the moment I do that I'll need a car to travel to site or an office. I know and love the car and have had it the longest of any car I've owned in 10 years!

Then started to come round to the thought of maybe a i3 RE might be a worthwhile thing to change to, but looking at used prices I'd get a car much smaller than mine, same age, no where near as exciting for what mine is worth. So mine stays for now, I don't think that will change anytime soon, I'm out of buying new, too expensive and lead times are silly, and used just makes no sense against what I already have.

 

[boba fett]

Its tough, proper First world problems!! I don't want to get rid of my toy, its essentially what I have worked hard for to get. I have always wanted one and thought it was a dream out of reach.

The M3 is a bit pointless, it sits there getting Sahara dust all over it begging to be driven (Ive not even run the rod bearings in yet since being done) while I spend most my time in a 320d. This although boring is quite liberating as I don't care where I park it and so on, with the others when I go to Tesco's I park so far away I'm closer to Sainsburys.

The thing is when I do take it out I love it, is it worth 14 mpg and £600 quid a year, I'm not sure, but for now and whats going on its nice to have around.

 

[isleaiw]

As mentioned above. my Audi has dropped in excess of £4k in last month. I think the cost of living squeeze, the higher interest rates, more people back commuting, more people getting a holiday etc etc will take the edge off demand of expected demand and in the short term second hand prices will wobble..... what happens by the summer is anyone's guess....

 

[Mo21]

Weird how it all works. My F83 went up 1k although could just be summer approaching.
The car market is still unpredictable. My 435i was sold by BMW within a week of putting it up for sale despite it being nearly 23k for a 8 year old car but on the flip side, the local independent dealer to me has had the same stock for a few weeks.

 

[moonstone]

I lost about £2k on F83 between buying it and selling it about a year and a bit later. Checking the M5, WBAC are currently offering £20k less than what I bought it for in October but similar examples on Autotrader are being sold fore about £3k less than what I paid.

On the hunt for a TTS though I'm seeing cars dropping £500 every 2-4 weeks since going up at the end of last year.

My attitude is that it's a bit like owning a house, the value is only really relevant if you want rid of it. I'm definitely planning to keep the M5 for a long time, especially if I can supplement it with a small toy, so I'm trying my best not to get hung up on it all.

 

[Grunty-Motor]

I think the wave will continue through the summer and it will be autumn 22-spring23 where the drop will happen.

Same with caravan / campers - we may try punting ours after our summer hols at start of July.....i am that confident

 

[boba fett]

I think the wave will continue through the summer and it will be autumn 22-spring23 where the drop will happen.

Same with caravan / campers - we may try punting ours after our summer hols at start of July.....i am that confident

Good call !

 

[Scoobyd]

With covid spiking up again in China and their zero covid policy potentially shutting everything down again that will only lead to further supply chain issues too and the long lead time on new cars continuing. Can’t see much changing from where we are now in the foreseeable. Tesla have just whacked their prices up in the last week too. Think I’ll be running my old girl for a while yet!